Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
