Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
